INTRODUCTION: As world records are being broken so often, tracking the swimmer`s performance is important to analyze its progression between competitions, and help coaches to define realistic goals and training methods. The aim of this study was to track the long distance freestyle events performance during the 2004-2008 Olympic Cycle. METHODS: For the 400-m and 1500-m, an overall of 181 swimmers and 905 race times were analyzed. FINA`s male top-150 ranking for long course in the 2007-2008 season was consulted in each freestyle event to identify the swimmers included in it. Best performances during the Olympic cycle seasons (between 2003-2004 and 2007-2008) were collected from ranking tables. This tables were provided by the National Swimming Federations of each swimmer identified, and when appropriate were also collected from a public swimming database (www.swimrankings.net). Performance progression was analyzed based in two approaches: (i) mean stability; (ii) normative stability. For mean stability assessment, descriptive statistics and ANOVA repeated measures followed by a post-hoc test were computed. Normative stability was analyzed with Pearson Correlation (Malina, 2001) and the Cohen`s Kappa tracking index (Landis and Koch, 1977). RESULTS: ANOVA repeated measures revealed significant variations in the swimming performance for the 400-m event [F (1,91) = 67.89; P < 0.01] and 1500-m event [F (1,90) = 91.81; P < 0.01] throughout the Olympic Cycle. Bonferroni post-hoc tests confirmed significant performance enhancement (P < 0.01). The K values expressing the stability throughout the Olympic Cycle Cycle were moderate [400-m event (K = 0.43 ± 0.05) and 1500-m event (K = 0.44 ± 0.05)]. Self-correlations revealed that high stability is achieved at the third season in the 1500-m event (r = 0.61) and at the fourth season in the 400-m event (r = 0.73). DISCUSSION: World-ranked swimmers performance went through a great improvement during the 2004-2008 Olympic Cycle. Stability and prediction based on overall Olympic Cycle period is moderate. When more strict time frames are used, swimming performance stability and prediction increases, starting at the third season in the 1500-m and at the fourth season in the 400-m.
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